One for the psephologists amongst you – where might CW do best – where should we target?



Filed under Uncategorized


  1. Dora Kaplan

    At this stage I reckon it’s more a question of where will you get the most publicity. What will the media find shocking or funny? Any free press will work wonders going forward. After all, Class War doesn’t have a £2 million quid war chest for campaign materials. So somebody else needs to pay. With that in mind it might be worth focusing on high profile, safe seats where there’s a significant, dissenting minority and the media are hungry for a David and Goliath narrative. Nick Clegg’s seat, for instance…?

  2. b

    Who will CW be getting votes from?

    1) Labour,
    2) Liberals,
    3) UKIP,
    4) Leftie Groupuscules,
    5) Non-voters Last Time Round (chose not to vote),
    6) Non-voters Last Time Round (too young),
    7) Non-voters Last Time Round (over 18, but not registered),
    8) Greens,
    9) Respect,
    10) SNP in Scotland,
    11) Plaid Cymru in Wales
    12) Far right?

    Both 4 and 7 might provide people willing to help the campaign, but I would say forget them as main target markets for votes. Going head to head with Respect is probably not a good idea either. But then maybe it is. What the fuck do I know?? Looking at the list and thinking ‘momentum’, I reckon 5 might be the big one. Look for falling turnout? Possibly also 6. Dunno! Forget 8, 12, and probably 2. Merry Christmas! 🙂

    • Tom Ferrour

      A lot of people who vote for the far right also vote for the far left. I expect CW to win votes off the right by making the case for “CLASS WAR NOT RACE WAR”

  3. dagmar

    Dagenham + Rainham (Cruddas)
    Hackney South and Shoreditch (Abbott)
    Bolsover (Skinner)
    Barking (Hodgepodge)
    any seats where there are fake-not-very-left Labour MPs sitting, ideally proletarian areas with a previously low-ish voter turnout

    Contrary to the above I suspect that Non-Voters Last Time Round are more likely to vote for CW than Labour voters; as people who bothered to vote for Brown last time are much more likely to stay with Labour than to defect to anyone else next time, especially if it continues to look like Labour has more than a vague chance of getting rid of Cameron and forming the next government.

    It’s the “angry” (or indeed the “lazy, can’t be bothered”) non-voters who are most likely to vote CW. Why should they bother voting for the rest?

    • b

      I agree, Dagmar. I just split Non-Voters Last Time Round into 3 groups.

      People who were on the electoral register last time round but chose not to vote could be the big CW target market.

      Those who were over 18 and unregistered, and who are still unregistered – a lot of people – probably shouldn’t be targeted in a big way. To target them, CW would have to run a voter registration campaign, which would be out of keeping with the main message and would waste resources. (Except possibly in some areas? Local knowledge required.)

      As for those who were unregistered last time because they were under 18, I think possibly they could be a target market too. What other party talks about how successive governments have got more and more young people into more and more debt?

      But back to the people who were registered last time and didn’t vote. The key seats could be where there was a big fall in turnout in 2010, from Labour to abstention. Does someone know which seats come onto that list? Not a big fall in turnout since the 1980s, but a big fall in 2010. Then from that group of seats, pick out the ones where the cunt who won in 2010, supported by say 20% of the electorate, is standing for re-election in 2015. Make it personal and force the cunt to respond to CW.

  4. Voice of Reason

    a) Against high profile candidates who have made themselves unpopular
    b) In strange marginal seats where students might swing the result EG Ceredigian. Certainly make it an interesting punt at the bookies!
    c) Across regions but focusing on places where locals have been priced out the housing markets EG London and the SE and where rampant corruption by Labour has made everyone voter apathy high EG most cities
    d) Against the leaders of the main political parties. (see a)
    e) in seats where you think hustings will take place
    Good luck!!

  5. There’s a whole host of other questions wrapped up in these two questions, as I’m sure you’ve realised. I’m going to address it as if you asked where CW would get most votes, and/or would get most publicity. And I’m going to ignore some really important stuff that could render all my comments meaningless.

    The most marginal seats would be ones that would likely generate most advance publicity, just because CW would look like a factor in the eventual result. If the incumbent is well-known, that would also help. On either basis Glenda Jackson’s seat in Hampstead and Kilburn is priority. Take 42 votes off Labour and CW is front page news. Similarly, George Eustice’s place in Camborne and Redruth is at risk – 66 votes for badgers kicks him out. You’ve got other candidates in London – Hendon is also very marginal, and Offord votes against gay rights. Find 106 gay-friendly Tory voters to listen to CW for half a second and you’ve landed him in shit.

    If a tag-team campaigned in Sheffield Hallam and Sheffield Central the media momentum from fighting Clegg could well claim a Labour victim down the road.

    Likewise, another Oxfordshire seat (Oxford West and Abingdon) would gain from the organisation fighting Cameron in Witney.

    Cardiff North is also marginal enough to be worth a pop. Sherwood (is there a candidate already?) is marginal and – thanks to Robin Hood – would be a absolute gift in terms of publicity.

    Beyond this you’re into 200+ margin territory, and (I reckon) it stops being useful looking at the majority.

  6. Ashe

    (1) Every seat which has a Bullingdon Club member as an MP
    (2) Several adjacent seats in a clearly defined geographical area – to maximise impact of campaigning
    (3) Wild cards – like NE Cambridgeshire where there is a lot of rural poverty
    (4) Very safe seats where the ruling party is complacent and never has any real opposition
    (5) Against particular candidates with a ‘nasty’ reputation

    I don’t think it matters to much about swinging small numbers one way or another,with UKIP’s rise and an unpredictable LIbdem vote there’s going to be a lot of unpredictability. Better to go for what creates the biggest ruckus provides a focus for pent up anger.and creates the nucleii for a larger movement.

    One other thing to take into account is that there will be a lot of council elections at the same time as the general election in 2015. It would make a lot of sense to think about standing council candidates in the same areas as the parliamentary candidates.

    It might also be worth a dummy run in a couple of councils somewhere during the 2014 council elections – stir up some interest and put down a marker or two in the area and even pick up some support.

  7. a bristolian

    Basically all of Bristol.

    Bristol West has a big anarcho/working class/hippy radical type population with places like Stoke’s Croft, St. Paul’s, Montpelier etc and who could resist messing with some Clifton posh-os.

    Bristol East was of course the stomping ground of ol’ Tony Benn many moons ago.

    Annnd Bristol South has been Labour since 1935.

    Have fun!

  8. ccw

    bristol and croydon

  9. Combine low turnouts, ease of access, geographical area, complacent MPs, well-known opponents (including Clegg), and revolutionary / lefty traditions. That pretty much gives you the constituencies bordering the M62…

  10. b

    Low turnout in 2010 is more important than marginality. If Labour won a seat with 20% of the electorate in 2010 and the Liberals came second with 7%, that might be easier to win than one where Labour got 35% and the Liberals 34%. People can say it’s not about winning, but being in with a chance of winning is what will make the most news. News about disaffection in the population anyway – not just a group of political militants interrupting something.

    Some more on turnout…

    The 5% of seats with the lowest turnout in 2010 (info from here) are as follows:

    Manchester Central 44.31
    Leeds Central 46.01
    Birmingham Ladywood 48.66
    Glasgow North East 49.13
    Blackley & Broughton 49.22
    Thirsk & Malton 49.91
    Manchester Gorton 50.47
    Hull East 50.62
    Antrim East 50.66
    Glasgow Central 50.88
    Wythenshawe & Sale East 50.99
    Middlesbrough 51.35
    Hull North 51.95
    Glasgow East 51.99
    Liverpool Riverside 52.05
    Preston 53.12
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 53.23
    Kensington 53.28
    Birmingham Erdington 53.53
    Strangford 53.69
    Great Grimsby 53.82
    Antrim South 53.94
    Belfast West 53.99
    Washington & Sunderland West 54.18
    Nottingham North 54.21
    Glasgow South West 54.61
    Swansea East 54.62
    Easington 54.66
    Liverpool Walton 54.84
    Hull West & Hessle 55.02
    Salford & Eccles 55.02
    West Ham 55.03
    Down North 55.16

    Of those, the following 23 are held by Labour:

    Birmingham, Erdington
    Birmingham, Ladywood
    Blackley and Broughton
    Glasgow Central
    Glasgow East
    Glasgow North East
    Glasgow South West
    Great Grimsby
    Leeds Central
    Liverpool, Riverside
    Liverpool, Walton
    Manchester Central
    Manchester, Gorton
    Nottingham North
    Salford and Eccles
    Stoke-on-Trent Central
    Swansea East
    Washington and Sunderland West
    West Ham
    Wythenshawe and Sale East

    Here are the seats that Labour won with less than 30% of the electorate:

    Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell 23%
    Walsall North David Winnick 25%
    Hull North Diana Johnson 25%
    Oldham East and Saddleworth Phil Woolas 26%
    Stoke-on-Trent Central Tristram Hunt 26%
    Leicester West Elizabeth Kendall 27%
    Birmingham Hall Green Roger Godsiff 27%
    Rochdale Simon Danczuk 27%
    Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey 27%
    Derby North Chris Williamson 27%
    Ashfield Gloria de Piero 27%
    Manchester Central Tony Lloyd 27%
    Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton 27%
    Southampton Itchen John Denham 28%
    Blackpool South Gordon Marsden 28%
    Don Valley Caroline Flint 28%
    Salford and Eccles Hazel Blears 28%
    Stoke-on-Trent South Robert Flello 28%
    Wythenshawe and Sale East Paul Goggins 28%
    Plymouth Moor View Alison Seabeck 28%
    Mansfield Alan Meale 28%
    Nottingham South Lillian Greenwood 29%
    Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden 29%
    Scunthorpe Nic Dakin 29%
    Hartlepool Iain Wright 29%
    Middlesbrough Sir Stuart Bell 29%
    Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson 29%
    Hull West and Hessle Alan Johnson 29%
    Dudley North Ian Austin 29%
    Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds 29%
    Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds 29%
    Hull East Karl Turner 29%
    Heywood and Middleton Jim Dobbin 29%
    Halifax Linda Riordan 29%
    West Bromwich West Adrian Bailey 29%
    Bristol South Dawn Primarolo 29%
    Southampton Test Alan Whitehead 29%
    Poplar and Limehouse Jim Fitzpatrick 29%
    Dagenham and Rainham Jon Cruddas 30%
    Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman 30%
    Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield 30%
    Huddersfield Barry Sheerman 30%
    Bristol East Kerry McCarthy 30%
    Birmingham Edgbaston Gisela Stuart 30%
    Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly 30%
    Manchester Gorton Sir Gerald Kaufman 30%
    Stoke-on-Trent North Joan Walley 30%
    Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley 30%
    Leeds West Rachel Reeves 30%
    Telford David Wright 30%
    Wakefield Mary Creagh 30%

    Aberdeen South Anne Begg 22%
    Edinburgh South Ian Murray 23%
    Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks 23%
    Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz 23%
    Glasgow North Ann McKechin 23%
    Aberdeen North Frank Doran 23%
    Glasgow Central Anas Sarwar 24%
    Edinburgh East Sheila Gilmore 26%
    Falkirk Eric Joyce 26%
    Dundee West James McGovern 26%
    Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling 26%
    Ayrshire North and Arran Katy Clark 27%
    Stirling Anne McGuire 27%
    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Sandra Osborne 27%
    East Lothian Fiona O’Donnell 27%
    Midlothian David Hamilton 27%
    Dunfermline and West Fife Thomas Docherty 28%
    Ayrshire Central Brian Donohoe 28%
    Livingston Graeme Morrice 28%
    Lanark and Hamilton East Jimmy Hood 29%
    Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty 29%
    Glasgow North West John Robertson 29%
    Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown 29%
    Glasgow South Tom Harris 29%

    Swansea West Geraint Davies 26%
    Ynys Mon Albert Owen 27%

    Of those, the following 9 had the lowest turnout (the percentages are what Labour won with):

    Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell 23%
    Glasgow Central Anas Sarwar 24%
    Stoke-on-Trent Central Tristram Hunt 26%
    Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey 27%
    Manchester Central Tony Lloyd 27%
    Salford and Eccles Hazel Blears 28%
    Wythenshawe and Sale East Paul Goggins 28%
    Middlesbrough Sir Stuart Bell 29%
    Manchester Gorton Sir Gerald Kaufman 30%

    The Hon Tristram Hunt’s constituency looks especially juicy. His dad’s Baron Hunt of Chesterton, professor at UCL, one-time leader of Cambridge council, and (oh yes!) a Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge.

    Tristram himself read History at Trinity College, Cambridge (how many working class applicants get into Cambridge with AAB at A Level?).

    He then swanned into well-paid work with the BBC and think tanks. What this TV historian and shadow Education Minister hates most of all seems to be the English Republic of 1649-1660.

    Talk about a fucking sitting duck target! 🙂

  11. gtr

    Is the aim to maximise the chance of winning?

    I thought the aim was not to win seats, but to use the election as a platform for stirring things up and encouraging people to organise and take things into their own hands..

    …in which case some of the more technical strategies listed above are nonsense; the real questions are: where will Class War resonate most? and which local battles (eg against well-known wrong’uns) will resonate most nationally?

  12. Arthur Wood

    Hull has low turnout but still a majority of over 10,000 for the labour MPs, It’s a very stagnant place where the BNP get more votes than the Greens.
    I’d love to see the labour members deposed but it’s not going to happen for a good while yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s